Sean Wilentz, You Can Be My Hero, Baby
April 11, 2008
Obama has tried to reinforce his democratic bona fides by asserting his superior electability, and by claiming that Clinton’s supporters are more likely to back him in November than vice versa. The polls, however, show otherwise. And even more important, the polling data on the electoral vote totals show an outcome very different from the one suggested by Obama. The latest state-by-state figures (as of late March) updated from SurveyUSA, indicate that if the election were held today, Clinton would defeat McCain in the Electoral College because of her lead in big, electoral-vote-rich states such as Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania — and McCain would beat Obama.
All I can say is “yes, yes, yes – thank you Sean Wilentz!”
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Boo to the past two months of head-to-heads. I trust Chuck Todd’s analysis on a ‘once-it’s-settled’ bump — “like post-convention” once the nomination is decided.